Estimating Winter Wheat Grain Yields

Wheat growers are frequently confronted with the need to estimate wheat yields in the spring in order to make decisions about potential recropping.

The winter wheat growing regions of Nebraska are characterized by large fluctuations in weather conditions, particularly temperature and precipitation. Winter wheat often suffers as a result of these climatic fluctuations. Wheat growers are frequently confronted with the need to estimate wheat yields in the spring to decide about potential recropping. Determining a reasonable estimate of wheat yield allows growers to predict if it is in their best interest to destroy their wheat and plant a summer crop or leave the wheat for harvest. Before making such a decision, growers should be aware of any restrictions imposed by government programs, crop insurance, or previous herbicide use.

This NebGuide will discuss three methods of estimating winter wheat yield. Each method relies on several assumptions that may not be accurate for every season or situation. These assumptions presume that soil moisture and nutrients are adequate, and that weeds, insects and diseases are not affecting yields. Added to the uncertainty of yield estimates is wheat's ability to compensate for changes in the environment.